ISET led the technical and modeling aspects of the study, in addition to providing support to CEDSJ for the participatory research with ecological and labor migrants to Jaipur. Sarah Opitz-Stapleton developed a statistical downscaling model for the Banas River Basin (the Banas River supplies water to Bisalpur Dam, a primary source of water for Jaipur). The model employs a non-parametric, analog method (Opitz-Stapleton and Gangopadhyay, 2010) to relate historical precipitation data to observed large-scale climate fields such as humidity and air temperature. Projections of future large-scale climate fields from multiple global climate models were used to develop possible future rainfall-runoff scenarios for Banas River out to the 2040s. At the same time, ISET developed a water accounting balance model for Jaipur and the Banas Basin using WEAP. The model placed demand-side equations—water use patterns, use efficiency, and allocation priorities, among others—on equal footing with supply side considerations, including streamflow, groundwater tables, reservoirs, etc. Through projections of shifts in precipitation and scenarios of future water demand conditioned on migration trends, ISET and CEDSJ were able to evaluate and compare alternative water development and management strategies for Jaipur in the face of climate change.

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Program activities also include:

• Participatory research on migrant laborers to Jaipur city and peri-urban areas, and investigations of their reasons for coming to Jaipur.

• Investigation of urban and peri-urban development trends and associated shifts in surface and groundwater demand, city water resource management, and development plans.

• Assessing the impact of climate change on the Banas River’s water availability via statistical downscaling and simple rainfall-runoff scenarios.

• A water resources supply and demand model (built in WEAP), incorporating both future migration and climate change conditioned rainfall-runoff scenarios.