Sub-Component Study: Precipitation and Temperature Shifts Due to Climate Change in Northwest Quito Canton, Ecuador

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Overview

This report was written as part of a project to provide policy- relevant data on Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, malaria, chikungunia and dengue fever and relevant socioeconomic, climatic and land-use change factors influencing disease rates and transmission in four rural parishes in Quito, Ecuador.

Key messages of the report:
-Precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to increase over northwest Ecuador over the 2020s (2010-2039), the 2050s (2040-2069) and the 2070s (2060-2089).
-Precipitation and minimum temperatures are likely to increase more in the dry season than the rainy season, but will still increase in the rainy season.
-These changes may create more favorable climate conditions for some disease-carrying vectors like mosquitos and sand flies.
-Other factors, like land-use change and human behaviors, will also influence the spread and life cycle of vector-borne diseases. These factors were investigated by the other collaborators to the overall study.
Keywords: Climate Modeling and Scenario Planning; Health; Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation; Social Vulnerability

Authors: Dr. Sarah Opitz-Stapleton

Citation: Opitz-Stapleton, S. (2016). Precipitation and Temperature Shifts Due to Climate Change in Northwest Quito Canton, Ecuador. In: Climate Vulnerability of the Health Sector in Quito: Making Technical Data Accessible to Policy Makers. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International and Staplets Consulting: Colorado.

Funded by: Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN)

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