Responding to Climate Change and Disaster:
Adaptation, Mitigation and Risk Reduction

This is a major three-year program currently underway and the main focus of ISET's activities. The project website, albeit still in draft form, can be accessed at www.climate-transitions.org - the website provides a wealth of information of the program concept, issues, approaches, methodologies, partners, and more.

Disasters and Climate Change: Interlinked Problems

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita grabbed the headlines this year. Climate related disasters are, however, nothing new. In 2002 the drought in Rajasthan and Gujarat, India, impoverished millions and caused widespread regional migration. The Orissa cyclone in 1999 killed more than 10,000 people and even today, more than six years later, recovery is far from complete. In 1998, flooding in Bangladesh affected 30 million people and caused over three billion dollars of damage.

Floods, droughts and storms: climate disasters are a major factor underlying the persistence of poverty in vulnerable regions. Such events now occur on an annual basis in many regions and the economic and social impact of disasters has grown dramatically over the last decade. Even before this year’s devastation, disaster relief had been consuming a steadily increasing share of development aid. Anticipated changes in climate are likely to exacerbate this.

Whatever society does to control greenhouse gas emissions, most scientists believe significant changes in global climate are now inevitable. While the record-breaking hurricane season this year may or may not have any relationship to climatic change, predictions suggest that increases in extreme events: floods, droughts and intense storms, are among the most likely outcomes. Katrina caused over 1,000 deaths and catalyzed the largest internal migration since the Civil War. If sea levels rise and a similar storm hits Bangladesh, the impact of Katrina will seem minor.  

Global efforts are essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human contributions to climate change. It is, however, unrealistic and unethical to focus solely on greenhouse gas reductions when existing science suggests significant changes are now inevitable. As the major beneficiaries of industrial development, we in the North bear a significant responsibility for helping those most likely to be affected by climate change. In addition, whatever their cause, strong humanitarian and other reasons exist for reducing disaster risks and aiding effective recovery when disasters occur. Every dollar invested in risk reduction saves ten that must be spent later on relief.

The opportunity

Despite the huge economic and social impact of disasters, they are also periods of opportunity. Change occurs when systems are stressed far more rapidly than in the course of “normal” daily life. As any engineering company knows, droughts are the best time to sell major dam projects. Droughts are also windows of opportunity when social and political support exists for changes in water use that would be politically impossible during “normal” periods. Water conservation programs “take off” and changes – such as the replacement of lawns with drought tolerant vegetation – can have a long lasting impact on water demand.

Opportunities for fundamental change that address long-term issues are also present in the case of floods and extreme storm events. Intensive debates are now underway on ways to reduce vulnerability by rebuilding wetlands and changing approaches to flood control as part of the reconstruction of New Orleans. Similar debates are ongoing in areas affected by the Asian Tsunami. Disasters present a unique window of opportunity for rebuilding lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and communities in ways that are far less vulnerable and much better adapted than before to inherent risks from extreme climatic and other events. Furthermore, society is willing to commit far more resources to areas following disasters than in almost any other situation. The Federal Government has committed over $200 billion to reconstruction in Louisiana following hurricane Katrina. Pakistan just raised over $5 billion for earthquake relief. Commitments for reconstruction following the Asian tsunami exceed $200 billion. Sums of this size could never have been raised for development alone. How they are invested will shape the future of communities in the affected regions and globally. If reconstruction recreates previous patterns of vulnerability then the funds will have been consumed rather than invested. If used to build new, more resilient and better adapted systems, then the investments will bring both local and global benefits.

Core Strategic Perspectives

ISET’s approach to climate and disaster issues is founded on a three-level, science-based, strategy:  First, to be successful, responses to climate and disaster issues need to accurately reflect the physical and social-behavioral context rather than, as is often the case, pre-formed opinions or highly politicized perspectives. As a result, research is often required in order to identify points of entry where interventions can have a significant impact. Second, potential solutions need to be demonstrated. Implementation in real contexts is essential. Third, research and demonstration must be combined with effective advocacy. Politicians don’t move where they see the light, they move where they feel the heat. The same can be said of bureaucracies and the private sector. Good approaches require “selling” if they are to make any impact in the competitive market of ideas. Equally importantly, ideologies (such as the current administration’s allergy to any discussion of climate change) need to be forcefully countered.

Beyond the above core strategic perspectives, ISET’s work on climate and disaster relief emphasizes the following techniques: 

1. Networking: We work in partnership with local field organizations, international agencies and the private sector.

2. Investment:  We seek points where catalytic investments can meet existing or create new demands for effective solutions. Where possible, ISET seeks to create environments in which solutions are sustainable because populations demand them and market opportunities result. Examples of this include:

1. Improved shelter: We are working with groups to identify earthquake resilient, low cost forms of housing that can be constructed in Pakistan and other vulnerable regions. The Pakistan earthquake has created a social demand. The key is to identify improved forms of housing (such as modern yurts) that present an affordable and socially acceptable alternative to conventional construction techniques and materials.

2. Early warning: We are working with communications companies to incorporate early warning systems as part of cell phone services and to expand cell coverage to vulnerable communities.

3. Energy:  In Nepal, our partners have passed legislation that enables groups to purchase power at wholesale rates and distribute it locally. They have also created legal and financial mechanisms supporting the creation of local power systems. Large centralized projects with long lead times have given way to systems enabling local investment in distributed generation. As a result, despite the ongoing civil war, Nepal’s generation capacity has doubled in the last decade.

3. Linking local, national and global activities:  In all cases we seek to link practical applied activities at the local field levels with analysis and advocacy at national and global levels. ISET has had a major impact on water policies in countries such as India and Nepal. We are also working closely with the UN and other international government and non-government organizations to identify and promote effective responses to climate change and disasters.

What are we actually doing?

Our current climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction program has the following key activities:

Conference on Climate Change: We hosted a major US-India conference on Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability and the links with disaster risk reduction in New Delhi in January 2006. The proceedings to the conference can be viewed here: Proceedings of the International Conference on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change. 

Research and Implementation Program on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in South Asia: In partnership with local non-government organizations in India, Nepal and Pakistan, Kings College London and the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, we have started a three-year program of research, implementation and documentation of risk reduction activities and advocacy. We will conduct a cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk reduction intervention in a couple of key sites in India and Pakistan to demonstrate the effectiveness of such measures. This program is funded primarily by the U.K. Department for International Development, as well as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Canadian International Development Research Centre.

International Advocacy: We are working with the Cooperative Program on Water and Climate and the UN Interagency Task Force on Climate Risk Reduction to promote effective strategies for responding to climate change at a global level. This includes advocacy of continued efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as an essential counterpart to adaptation and risk reduction.

Local Response: As the accompanying descriptions of our response to the earthquake in Pakistan and earthquake risk in Nepal outline, we are linking our work on climate with direct activities to respond to current and probable disasters in the region.